The Armstrong-Contador rematch

"My relationship with Lance Armstrong is zero"

This Saturday marks the 97th version of the Tour de France which will begin in Rotterdam, Netherlands with a short 5.5-mile time trial. The race features a delicious rematch of the Lance Armstrong - Alberto Contador feud.

Last year I predicted that Armstrong would finish on the podium of cycling’s greatest race, with an outside chance of possibly landing at the top. He ended up finishing third, with his teammate, Alberto Contador, landing the Yellow Jersey.

This year, I think it’s likely that Armstrong will finish with the best overall time among his teammates. Unfortunately for Lance in this scenario, Contador is no longer a teammate.

Although he’s never publicly admitted it, I believe Lance’s biggest reason for coming out of retirement two years ago was to defend his all time record of most Tour de France victories (7). At only 27 years of age, and already with 2 Tour victories under his belt, I think Lance knows that Contador has an excellent chance at matching or surpassing his record someday. I believe Lance’s chief motivation for returning was to take out at least one Yellow Jersey victory from Contador, thus increasing his chances of maintaining his record as the man with the most Tour championships.

Be that as it may, I don’t think Armstrong’s chances of beating his former teammate are all that great. In fact, I think Contador will beat Armstrong by a fairly large margin – by more than 7 or 8 minutes.

On roads that will be up and down all day, Stages 7 and 8 will present opportunities for the Spaniard to pick up time against his rivals. However, with a weaker team than he had last year, I think Contador will wait until late in the Tour to strike against his former teammate.

I look for Contador to land his first psychological blow on Armstrong during Stage 14 when the race finishes at the top of Ax-3 Domaines, the second major mountain top finish of the race. Look for Contador to launch his first serious attack on the slopes of the final climb to the ski resort in the Pyrenees.

It’s likely that Lance will be able to limit his losses on this day. However, Stage 17 will likely be the day of reckoning. The 108-mile stage ends at the summit of the famous Col du Tourmalet. Contador will use the final miles on the steep slopes to the top to smash Armstrong and all other contenders.

I still think Lance is strong enough to finish on the podium again. There aren’t many contenders that will be able to go mano a mano with Lance. It’s likely that Andy Schleck will again be his biggest competition for that second spot on the podium. Who knows, maybe if circumstances prevail towards the end of the race, maybe Armstrong will covertly lend some assistance to Schleck in order to overcome Contador? If my theory for Lance’s return is correct, the motivation will certainly be there.

With last year’s winner out of the picture due to doping investigations, I look for Contador, or one of the Schleck brothers, Frank or Andy, to claim the Red Polka Dot Climbers Jersey for the “King of the Mountains” this year.

For the Green Sprinters Jersey, I fully expect Mark Cavendish to win this year. Despite a nasty crash at the end of the 4th Stage of the Tour of Switzerland (see video below), there is no one in the world as fast as this man is right now.




Jeff
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